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INVESTING IN MORTGAGE NOTES: 2024 MARKET FORECAST

Strategic Insights for Investors: Navigating Regulatory Waves, Market Shifts, and AI Innovations in Mortgage Note Investments

In the ever-evolving landscape of mortgage note investments, 2024 promises to be a year of significant shifts and strategic considerations. As a note investor, it’s crucial to stay ahead of the curve, understanding how regulatory changes and market dynamics will impact the secondary mortgage market. Let’s look into the key factors that will shape the landscape in 2024.

Regulatory Changes: Basel III and Ginnie Mae’s Capital Rule

In 2023, Ginnie Mae extended the deadline for a nonbank capital rule, now set to be implemented on December 31, 2024.  The impending risk-based rule from Ginnie Mae for nonbanks stands as one of three capital reforms on the horizon that have the potential to redefine the mortgage industry. 

The Basel III Endgame proposal looms on the horizon, introducing higher risk weights that may expedite inventory offloading but could also raise costs for lenders. Notably, the proposal may disincentivize banks from originating mortgages for sale to GSEs, impacting some households and making the mortgage origination market less competitive.

Ginnie Mae and FHA Limits: A Shifting Landscape

Ginnie Mae’s collaboration with The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and the proposed bank rule’s impact on risk weightings for lower down payment products are crucial factors to watch. These changes could increase the cost of capital, affecting not only consumers but also business-to-business players like warehouse lenders and investors in mortgage servicing rights.

Additionally, the new Federal Housing Administration (FHA) limits on lending offer note investors valuable insights into fair market values (FMV), aiding in strategic decision-making.

You can search the FHA mortgage limits by jurisdiction here. This would offer note investors insight into FMV .

Fannie Mae’s Regulation Update on AOL’s and Rental Payments in Credit Scores

Fannie Mae’s regulation update on the use of Attorney Opinion Letters (AOL) hints at potential shifts in  what you might see in collateral files down the road. As the industry evolves, investors may encounter more AOLs, necessitating a nuanced understanding of their implications. Certain jurisdictions see higher rates of AOL’s than others. 

In a bid to assess creditworthiness, pilot programs incorporating rental payments into credit score considerations are gaining traction, providing an alternative lens for evaluating risk.

Mortgage Originations and Liquidity Concerns

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects a notable increase in mortgage origination volume in 2024, reaching $1.95 trillion. However, a mild recession is anticipated in the first half of the year due to higher interest rates, tighter credit conditions, and reduced household savings. Lower rates, though, are expected to bolster homebuyer demand and increase existing home inventory.

Depositories are reviewing proposed capital regulations, with potential separate rules for nonbanks. If both sets of standards for ensuring liquidity come into effect, the mortgage industry’s composition could undergo a radical transformation.

Mortgage Rates and Servicing Landscape

Fiscal and monetary policies have contributed to higher mortgage rates in 2023, with an expected baseline forecast of 6.1 percent at the end of 2024. On the servicing side, low delinquencies in 2023 may give way to increased delinquency rates in 2024, driven by rising unemployment and additional financial stressors on borrowers.

AI in Loan Servicing: Shaping the Future

AI’s role in the mortgage industry is expanding, with larger servicers leveraging AI tools for early identification of financial difficulties and enhanced marketing efforts. Five key areas where AI will make an impact in 2024 include enhanced lead generation, adaptive pricing, strategic cross-selling, efficient follow-ups, and market sentiment analysis.

Automated Valuation Models and Future Considerations

Bond prices, with their inverse relationship to mortgage interest rates, and the correlation between 10-year Treasury yields and mortgage rates are fundamentals that  note investors can monitor in  2024. As treasury yields show signs of coming down, investors should keep a close eye on how these dynamics play out. Diversification in your portfolio requires an understanding of of market behavior. 

In conclusion, 2024 promises both challenges and opportunities for mortgage note investors. By staying informed and adapting strategies to the evolving landscape, savvy investors can navigate the complexities of the secondary mortgage market with confidence and expertise.

Become a part of our online community, where investors, both beginners and seasoned investors, have enhanced their success by tapping into our collective knowledge in the secondary mortgage market.


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